The spatiotemporal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China since the termination of the dynamic zero-COVID policy

Jiaying Li; Jingqi Yang; Xiao Ding; Hangyu Zhou; Na Han; Aiping Wu

doi:10.1016/j.virs.2024.09.003

October 2024

. doi: 10.1016/j.virs.2024.09.003

Citation: Jiaying Li, Jingqi Yang, Xiao Ding, Hangyu Zhou, Na Han, Aiping Wu. The spatiotemporal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China since the termination of the dynamic zero-COVID policy .VIROLOGICA SINICA, 2024, 39(5) : 737-746. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.virs.2024.09.003

动态清零政策终止后新型冠状病毒在中国传播的时空特征分析

李家颍 ^a ,
杨镜琪 ^a ,
丁啸 ^a ,
周航宇 ^a ,
韩娜 ^a ,
吴爱平 ^a,b,,

cstr: 32224.14.j.virs.2024.09.003

中国医学科学院北京协和医学院苏州系统医学研究所、重大疾病共性机制研究全国重点实验室

通讯作者： 吴爱平, wap@ism.cams.cn
收稿日期： 2024-03-02
录用日期： 2024-09-09

摘要

动态清零政策有效遏制了新冠病毒在中国的广泛传播，同时使中国人群具有免疫落差的特点。动态清零政策终止初期，与新冠病毒各谱系感染相关的新冠肺炎病例数量激增，因此，有必要探讨新冠病毒不同谱系在中国传播的流行特征。本研究基于动态清零政策终止后11个月内在中国地区采集的39,456条高质量的新冠病毒基因组序列数据，开展了病毒谱系分配、系统发育分析、谱系流行模式比较、系统动力学建模和重组识别等分析。研究发现，中国后疫情时期经历了三个主要流行谱系动态变化的阶段。地理位置相邻的地区具有相似的病毒谱系组成，表明邻近地区的跨区域合作对有效防疫的重要性。与美国、英国和日本相比，新冠病毒的主要流行谱系在中国具有独特的流行轨迹，表现出先滞后而后提前的现象，提示不同的防控政策对新冠病毒的流行模式可能产生影响。香港、上海和湖北成为新冠病毒在全国传播的关键枢纽，病毒传播中心在中国大陆地区经历了从东部到中部的转移过程。尽管在中国尚未检测到具有显著变异的新冠病毒变体，但本研究识别并验证了一个在中国新发的重组事件（XCN谱系），凸显了新冠病毒仍在持续进化的特点。综上所述，本研究系统分析了自中国动态清零政策终止后接近一年的时间里新冠病毒在中国传播的时空特征，为未来区域性疫情监测和循证公共卫生政策的制定提供了宝贵见解。
- 新冠病毒
- , 流行病学
- , 动态清零政策
- , 群体免疫
- , 病毒重组

The spatiotemporal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China since the termination of the dynamic zero-COVID policy

Jiaying Li ^a ,
Jingqi Yang ^a ,
Xiao Ding ^a ,
Hangyu Zhou ^a ,
Na Han ^a ,
Aiping Wu ^a,b,,

a. State Key Laboratory of Common Mechanism Research for Major Diseases, Suzhou Institute of Systems Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Suzhou 215123, China;
b. Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control (Peking Union Medical College), Ministry of Education, Beijing 100730, China

Corresponding author: Aiping Wu, wap@ism.cams.cn
Received Date: 02 March 2024
Accepted Date: 09 September 2024

Abstract

China's dynamic zero-COVID policy has effectively curbed the spread of SARS-CoV-2, while inadvertently creating immunity gaps within its population. Subsequent surges in COVID-19 cases linked to various SARS-CoV-2 lineages post-policy termination necessitate a thorough investigation into the epidemiological landscape. This study addresses this issue by analyzing a comprehensive dataset of 39,456 high-quality genomes collected nationwide over an 11-month period since policy termination. Through lineage assignment, phylogenetic analysis, pandemic pattern comparison, phylodynamic reconstruction, and recombination detection, we found that China's post-epidemic period could be divided into three stages, along with dynamic changes in dominant lineages. Geographical clustering of similar lineages implies the importance of cross-border cooperation among neighboring regions. Compared to the USA, UK, and Japan, China exhibits unique trajectories of lineage epidemics, characterized by initial lagging followed by subsequent advancement, indicating the potential influence of diverse prevention and control policies on lineage epidemic patterns. Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Hubei emerge as pivotal nodes in the nationwide spread, marking a shift in the transmission center from east to central regions of China. Although China hasn't experienced significant variant emergence, the detection and validation of the novel recombination event, XCN lineage, underscore the ongoing virus evolution. Overall, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus in China since the termination of the dynamic zero-COVID policy, offering valuable insights for regional surveillance and evidence-based public health policymaking.
- SARS-CoV-2
- , Epidemiology
- , Dynamic zero-COVID policy
- , Population immunity
- , Recombination

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